Tesla's market capitalization could surpass $1.6 trillion. Here's how to do it.
Wall Street has set a new high price target for Tesla. It's a doozy.
Pierre Ferragu, a New Street Research analyst, has been a Tesla bull for a long time (ticker: TSLA ). When Tesla stock was below $300 in 2019, he had a price objective north of $500. That was before Tesla's stock split, which was five for one. It was also around the time when Tesla was valued at around $60 billion.
For the most part, Ferragu has remained bullish, but other analysts have taken turns claiming the top price target spot. Analyst Zhu Yue of China Securities had set a $1,485 price target for Tesla as of Wednesday. Tesla stock is rated as a Buy by the analyst.
Tesla is valued at around $1.5 trillion based on this target. Tesla has around 1 billion outstanding shares, excluding management stock options that will presumably become shares in the future.
Ferragu raised his price objective above Zhu's on Wednesday, setting it at $1,580, up from $1,298 before. This is Wall Street's new high, valuing the company at almost $1.6 trillion.
However, the bump isn't providing Tesla stock the lift that bulls would like. In early trade, shares are down around 0.6 percent. The S&P 500 index is up 0.1 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.3 percent.
Ferragu noted in his Wednesday research that "several strong catalysts" in 2022 might drive shares higher in the following months. An upbeat fourth quarter, excellent output from Tesla's Shanghai plant, increased production capacity coming up in Germany and Texas, and new Tesla EV batteries are among them.
Tesla is expected to deliver roughly 283,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, according to Ferragu. Around 266,000 people are expected, according to Wall Street. Furthermore, Ferragu estimates that Tesla will sell 1.5 million automobiles in 2022. Estimates for 2022 deliveries on Wall Street range from 1.3 million to 1.4 million units.
Tesla's two new manufacturing sites will be responsible for the increased volume.
"We expect margins to expand despite the ramp of two facilities," the analyst noted. Ferragu expects gross profit margins to exceed 30% by the end of 2022, up from the mid-twenties now.
The company will also benefit from batteries in the future year. "By the end of the year, we expect 4680 manufacturing to be fully operational, and we expect it to rapidly expand from there." The "4680" refers to the cylindrical batteries that Tesla intends to use.
Costs decrease as battery sizes increase, and performance improves. The "46" in "4680" stands for the diameter in millimetres, while the "80" stands for the length in millimetres. "2170" is the current generation of electric vehicle batteries utilised by Tesla and others. That's a diameter of 21 millimetres and a length of 70 millimetres.
AA batteries for consumer devices have a diameter of 14 millimetres and a length of 50 millimetres.
The Buy-rating ratio for Tesla shares on Wall Street did not change as a result of Ferragu's new goal because he was already at Buy. In total, 48 percent of the roughly 50 analysts that monitor Tesla stock grade it as a Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for S&P 500 stocks is around 55%.
Over the last month, the average analyst price target has risen by around $50 to around $830.